Past, present, future: tracking and simulating genetic differentiation over time in a closed metapopulation system

Abstract Genetic differentiation plays an essential role in the assessment of metapopulation systems conservation concern. Migration rates affect degree genetic between subpopulations, with increasing leading to extinction risk. Analyses repeated over time together projections into future are therefore important inform conservation. We investigated a closed system obligate forest grouse, Western capercaillie Tetrao urogallus , by comparing microsatellite population structure historic and recent period. found increase period approximately 15 years. Making use forward simulations accounting for dynamics genetics from both periods, we explored implementing scenarios differing migration rates. Using derived dataset, predicted further 2050. then examined effects two realistic yet hypothetical on differentiation. While isolation subpopulation led overall increased differentiation, re-establishment connectivity subpopulations maintained at levels. Our results emphasize importance maintaining order prevent loss variation. The simulation set-up developed is highly adaptable will aid researchers conservationists alike anticipating consequences strategies systems.